GHG // GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001724755 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Hotels/Resorts

$0.99 ▲ +0.02 (+2.52%)

MKT CAP: $99.9M • VOL: 53.2K

52W L $1 52W H $2

ROARABLE / RQD

C • 64/100

ALTMAN Z

0.49 RISK

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

GHG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 64/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

64 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND

Whale & Options Flow

12 / 20

NEUTRAL

52W RANGE 70% • VS 200D +6.4% • RSI 60.5

03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Insider & Capital Conviction

17 / 20

STRONG

FCF YIELD +2.9% • P/E 3.9x • F-SCORE 7/9

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

15 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

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GHG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.18%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $0.95H $1.00L $0.93C $0.99VOL 68.0K

RES: $1.04SUP: $0.88SMA50: $1.02SMA200: $1.19

GHG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (GHG) exhibits 34.9% gross margins and 85.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Hotels/Resorts), balanced against a 4.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 34.9% gross profitability converts into 5.2% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 85.0% // GM: 34.9%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -14.7% paired with 2.88% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -14.7% // FCF YLD: 2.88%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.49 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.49 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 4.2x trailing P/E (3.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 4.2x // EV/EBITDA: —

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $0.99 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Hotels/Resorts require continuous execution to defend 15.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 15.2% // D/E: 0.45x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 3.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 4.2x

FORWARD P/E 3.9x

EV / EBITDA —

FCF YIELD 2.88%

GROSS MARGIN 34.9%

OPERATING MARGIN 5.2%

NET MARGIN 15.2%

ROIC % 85.0%

REV GROWTH YOY -14.7%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.24

DEBT / EQUITY —

DIVIDEND YIELD 6.16%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 41.2

5Y EQUITY BETA —

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // GHGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $0.91

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for GHG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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