ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

GCMG // GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A)

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001819796 ↗
Financials • Investment Managers
$12.61 ▲ +0.39 (+3.19%)
MKT CAP: $2.56B • VOL: 1.09M
GCMG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 77/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
77 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
19 / 20
STRONG
FCF +32.6% vs NI +142.7% • ROIC-WACC +73.5% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 81% • VS 200D +7.2% • RSI 65.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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GCMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.48%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-10-30O $12.59H $12.69L $12.41C $12.61VOL 412.9K
RES: $13.33SUP: $12.06SMA50: $12.96SMA200: $11.87
$15.22$13.76$12.30$10.85$9.39RES $13.33SUP $12.06$12.612026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
GCMG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 82.5% return on invested capital within Financials (Investment Managers), balanced against a 16.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 23.9% operating margin and 82.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 82.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.5% paired with 6.85% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.5% // FCF YLD: 6.85%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 56.4x trailing P/E (52.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 56.4x // EV/EBITDA: 16.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $12.61 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Investment Managers require continuous execution to defend 8.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 8.1% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 52.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 56.4x
FORWARD P/E 52.5x
EV / EBITDA 16.5x
FCF YIELD 6.85%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 23.9%
NET MARGIN 8.1%
ROIC % 82.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.22
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // GCMGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $11.54
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>