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GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$12.61 +3.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.66

GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.56B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GCMG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GCMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: GCMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $12.61 (+3.19% 1D, market cap $2.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GCMG ranks #155 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GCMG compare to GDV and LCLN in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), GCMG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 56.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 82.5%. By comparison, GDV (Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust of) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.59B) and LCLN (Lincoln International Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, APAM leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while GCMG leads on capital efficiency (82.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GCMG?

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Per GCMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819796), GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) generated $557.6M in revenue (+8.5% YoY), $45.4M in net income, and $175.0M in free cash flow against $813.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 56x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.66 (+0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 31.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GCMG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GCMG SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 31.4% FCF Margin ($175.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$13.08-5.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$12.34-1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$12.22+3.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$12.61+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GCMG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, GCMG faces multiple-compression risk if 56.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 56x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.94) or 200D SMA ($11.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.23) toward Bear Floor ($10.32).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GCMG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GCMG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

48.530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE59% OF RANGE

L: $9$12.61H: $15

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A+RQD 19 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on GCMG

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (95)

82.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.85% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (62)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GCMG

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Priced at 56x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GCMG Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GCMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.01%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-11-02O $12.22H $12.61L $12.22C $12.61VOL 1.09M

RES: $13.32SUP: $12.07SMA50: $12.94SMA200: $11.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GCMG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GCMG Butterfly Map → + Track GCMG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

39.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GCMG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GCMG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GCMG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GCMG)

Financials Rank #155 of 1096 ⚔️ GDV vs GCMG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (GCMG vs. GDV, LCLN, APAM, NAN)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) ranks #155 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #393 by equity capitalization ($2.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, APAM leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while GCMG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 82.5% ROIC and — gross margin. GCMG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GCMG ACTIVE GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A)	C+	69/100	56.4x	—	82.5%	+3.19%	$2.56B	Benchmark Subject
GDV Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust of	D	44/100	—	—	—	+0.63%	$2.59B	/gdv-vs-gcmg →
LCLN Lincoln International Inc. (Class A)	D+	57/100	—	—	—	+3.18%	$2.59B	/lcln-vs-gcmg →
APAM Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (Class A)	C-	59/100	10.2x	—	71.9%	+4.78%	$2.95B	/apam-vs-gcmg →
NAN Nuveen New York Quality Municipal Income Fund	D	45/100	—	—	—	+1.63%	$3.01B	/nan-vs-gcmg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819796

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) reported GAAP revenue of $557.6M (+8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $514.0M , and +25.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $45.4M, operating cash flow of $183.5M, and free cash flow of $175.0M (+32.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, GCMG closed FY2025 with $813.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$557.6M	$45.4M	$183.5M	$175.0M	$813.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$514.0M	$18.7M	$148.8M	$132.0M	$612.7M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$445.0M	$12.8M	$92.1M	$92.1M	—	—

3. GCMG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GCMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GCMG compare to GDV and LCLN in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GCMG?

Where is GCMG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GCMG last traded at $12.61 (+3.19% on volume of 1,090,528 shares), positioning the stock -2.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.94) and +6.23% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.87). Across its 52-week range of $9.30 to $14.87, GCMG sits at the 59.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($11.87 to $13.35).

GCMG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell GCMG stock right now?

GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (83% return on capital), mixed timing at 56x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is GCMG's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

GCMG's 12-month base price target is $13.23 (range $10.32 to $15.61), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: GCMG RQD Cockpit GCMG 12M Forecast GCMG Earnings & Move GCMG Dividends & DRIP GCMG Insiders & 13F GCMG Whale Options GCMG Profit Sankey GCMG News & Why