Why GCMG Stock surged +3.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$12.61 +3.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.66

GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.56B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GCMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: GCMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $12.61 (+3.19% 1D, market cap $2.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GCMG ranks #155 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GCMG compare to GDV and LCLN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), GCMG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 56.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 82.5%. By comparison, GDV (Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust of) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.59B) and LCLN (Lincoln International Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, APAM leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while GCMG leads on capital efficiency (82.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GCMG?
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Per GCMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819796), GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) generated $557.6M in revenue (+8.5% YoY), $45.4M in net income, and $175.0M in free cash flow against $813.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 56x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.66 (+0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 31.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (19)Whales (9)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$16 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE GCMG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GCMG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GCMG SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 31.4% FCF Margin ($175.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
77
Grade B+$13.08-5.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
74
Grade B+$12.34-1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$12.22+3.2% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$12.61+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GCMG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, GCMG faces multiple-compression risk if 56.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 56x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.94) or 200D SMA ($11.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.23) toward Bear Floor ($10.32).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GCMG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GCMG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why GCMG Stock surged +3.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) surged +3.19% to $12.61, trading at 59% of its 52-week range ($9.3 – $14.87). Solid steady margins (83% return on capital), mixed timing at 56x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 59% of its 52-week range ($9.3 – $14.87) with RSI-14 at 48.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.9% around $12.61 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $175.0M annual free cash flow.
Live GCMG Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GCMG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
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GCMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.01%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-02O $12.22H $12.61L $12.22C $12.61VOL 1.09M
RES: $13.32SUP: $12.07SMA50: $12.94SMA200: $11.87
$15.22$13.76$12.30$10.85$9.39RES $13.32SUP $12.07$12.612026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GCMG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
39.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GCMG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GCMG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GCMG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GCMG)

Financials Rank #155 of 1096 ⚔️ GDV vs GCMG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (GCMG vs. GDV, LCLN, APAM, NAN)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) ranks #155 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #393 by equity capitalization ($2.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, APAM leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while GCMG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 82.5% ROIC and — gross margin. GCMG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GCMG ACTIVE
GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A)
C+ 69/100 56.4x — 82.5% +3.19% $2.56B Benchmark Subject
GDV
Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust of
D 44/100 — — — +0.63% $2.59B /gdv-vs-gcmg →
LCLN
Lincoln International Inc. (Class A)
D+ 57/100 — — — +3.18% $2.59B /lcln-vs-gcmg →
APAM
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (Class A)
C- 59/100 10.2x — 71.9% +4.78% $2.95B /apam-vs-gcmg →
NAN
Nuveen New York Quality Municipal Income Fund
D 45/100 — — — +1.63% $3.01B /nan-vs-gcmg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819796

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) reported GAAP revenue of $557.6M (+8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $514.0M , and +25.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $45.4M, operating cash flow of $183.5M, and free cash flow of $175.0M (+32.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, GCMG closed FY2025 with $813.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $557.6M $45.4M $183.5M $175.0M $813.8M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $514.0M $18.7M $148.8M $132.0M $612.7M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $445.0M $12.8M $92.1M $92.1M — —

3. GCMG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GCMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: GCMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $12.61 (+3.19% 1D, market cap $2.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GCMG ranks #155 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GCMG compare to GDV and LCLN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), GCMG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 56.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 82.5%. By comparison, GDV (Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust of) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.59B) and LCLN (Lincoln International Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, APAM leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while GCMG leads on capital efficiency (82.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GCMG?

Per GCMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819796), GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) generated $557.6M in revenue (+8.5% YoY), $45.4M in net income, and $175.0M in free cash flow against $813.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 56x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GCMG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GCMG last traded at $12.61 (+3.19% on volume of 1,090,528 shares), positioning the stock -2.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.94) and +6.23% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.87). Across its 52-week range of $9.30 to $14.87, GCMG sits at the 59.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($11.87 to $13.35).

GCMG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is GCMG stock moving today?

Why GCMG Stock surged +3.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (83% return on capital), mixed timing at 56x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

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