ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

FRD // Friedman Industries Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000039092 ↗
Materials • Steel/Iron Ore
$43.17 ▲ +0.35 (+0.82%)
MKT CAP: $311.4M • VOL: 43.0K
FRD // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 62/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
62 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +5.1% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 59% • VS 200D +2.1% • RSI 54.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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FRD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +109.66%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $42.52H $43.24L $41.52C $43.17VOL 45.9K
RES: $43.04SUP: $39.43SMA50: $42.05SMA200: $29.44
$50.90$42.08$33.27$24.46$15.64RES $43.04SUP $39.43$43.172026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
FRD // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 13.7% return on invested capital within Materials (Steel/Iron Ore), balanced against a 15.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 13.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 13.7% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 15.9x trailing P/E (14.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 15.9x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $43.17 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Steel/Iron Ore require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 14.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 15.9x
FORWARD P/E 14.8x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % 13.7%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.71
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // FRDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $39.50
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>