ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

EPM // Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001006655 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$3.82 ▼ -0.07 (-1.80%)
MKT CAP: $155.3M • VOL: 405.0K
EPM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (+3 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
51 / 100 +3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +45.4% vs NI -63.9% • ROIC-WACC -3.4% • Z 1.64
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +21.3% • P/E 98x • F-SCORE 5/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.19 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.14
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

Why did EPM's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever EPM is Upgraded or Downgraded.

EPM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.52%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $3.89H $3.89L $3.82C $3.82VOL 405.0K
RES: $4.04SUP: $3.53SMA50: $3.68SMA200: $4.06
$5.11$4.61$4.10$3.60$3.09RES $4.04SUP $3.53$3.822026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
EPM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) exhibits 42.5% gross margins and 5.2% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 36.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 42.5% gross profitability converts into 4.9% operating margin and 5.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.2% // GM: 42.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of 0.0% paired with 21.29% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: 0.0% // FCF YLD: 21.29%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.64 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.64 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 105.4x trailing P/E (98.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 105.4x // EV/EBITDA: 36.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $3.82 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 1.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 98.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 105.4x
FORWARD P/E 98.0x
EV / EBITDA 36.3x
FCF YIELD 21.29%
GROSS MARGIN 42.5%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.9%
NET MARGIN 1.7%
ROIC % 5.2%
REV GROWTH YOY 0.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.04
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 10.53%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 54.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // EPMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $3.50
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for EPM & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>