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Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.82 -1.80% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.80

Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $155.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on EPM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EPM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (NYSE: EPM) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $3.82 (-1.80% 1D, market cap $155.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EPM ranks #135 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EPM compare to SJT and ANNA in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EPM carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 105.4x, gross margin of 42.5%, and ROIC of 5.2%. By comparison, SJT (San Juan Basin Royalty Trust) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $158.5M) and ANNA (AleAnna Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.5%, cap $163.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EPM leads on earnings multiple (105.4x) while ANNA leads on capital efficiency (8.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EPM?

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Per EPM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001006655), Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. generated $85.8M in revenue (-0.0% YoY), $1.5M in net income, and $33.1M in free cash flow against $169.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.80 (-0.51%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 38.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EPM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY EPM SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 38.5% FCF Margin ($33.1M FCF) & 42.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$3.71+1.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$3.75+5.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$3.95-3.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.82-1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D (51)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EPM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EPM currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (9/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.68) and Max Pain ($4.01) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.24.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EPM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “EPM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

54.730 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.64>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE35% OF RANGE

L: $3$3.82H: $5

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (43% profit margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on EPM

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

5.2% ROIC with 42.5% gross margin and 21.29% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 1.64 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (50)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like EPM

✓Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Priced at 105x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EPM)

✓Walkthrough of EPM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

EPM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.52%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $3.89H $3.89L $3.82C $3.82VOL 405.0K

RES: $4.04SUP: $3.53SMA50: $3.68SMA200: $4.06

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EPM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EPM Butterfly Map → + Track EPM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. 0.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EPM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EPM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EPM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EPM)

Energy Rank #135 of 211 ⚔️ SJT vs EPM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EPM vs. SJT, ANNA, GLND, MINE)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) ranks #135 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #180 by equity capitalization ($155.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EPM leads on earnings valuation at 105.4x trailing P/E, while ANNA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.5% ROIC and — gross margin. GLND currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with EPM at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
EPM ACTIVE Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc.	D	51/100	105.4x	42.5%	5.2%	-1.80%	$155.3M	Benchmark Subject
SJT San Juan Basin Royalty Trust	D	50/100	—	—	—	+0.59%	$158.5M	/sjt-vs-epm →
ANNA AleAnna Inc. (Class A)	D	50/100	—	—	8.5%	-0.81%	$163.3M	/anna-vs-epm →
GLND Greenland Energy Company	D+	52/100	—	—	—	+2.16%	$144.7M	/glnd-vs-epm →
MINE Mayfair Gold Corp.	D	45/100	—	—	—	+1.70%	$166.8M	/mine-vs-epm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001006655

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) reported GAAP revenue of $85.8M (-0.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $85.9M , and -33.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.5M, operating cash flow of $33.1M, and free cash flow of $33.1M (+45.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, EPM closed FY2025 with $169.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.64, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$85.8M	$1.5M	$33.1M	$33.1M	$169.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$85.9M	$4.1M	$22.7M	$22.7M	$160.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$128.5M	$35.2M	$51.3M	$51.3M	—	—

3. EPM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EPM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does EPM compare to SJT and ANNA in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EPM?

Where is EPM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EPM last traded at $3.82 (-1.80% on volume of 405,002 shares), positioning the stock +3.80% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.68) and -5.91% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.06). Across its 52-week range of $3.19 to $4.99, EPM sits at the 35.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($3.59 to $4.05).

EPM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell EPM stock right now?

Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 51/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 105x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is EPM's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

EPM's 12-month base price target is $3.7 (range $2.89 to $5.24), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: EPM RQD Cockpit EPM 12M Forecast EPM Earnings & Move EPM Dividends & DRIP EPM Insiders & 13F EPM Whale Options EPM Profit Sankey EPM News & Why