ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

DNUT // Krispy Kreme Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001857154 ↗
Consumer Staples • Food Chains
$3.20 ▲ +0.15 (+4.92%)
MKT CAP: $555.2M • VOL: 3.70M
DNUT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 36/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
36 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
5 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF +14.6% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -31.6% • Z 0.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 87% • VS 200D +8.8% • RSI 71.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
9 / 20
WARNING
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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DNUT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.78%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $3.22H $3.30L $3.20C $3.20VOL 3.76M
RES: $3.03SUP: $2.80SMA50: $3.12SMA200: $3.34
$4.67$4.17$3.66$3.16$2.65RES $3.03SUP $2.80$3.202026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
DNUT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Krispy Kreme Inc. (DNUT) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -24.4% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Food Chains), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -30.8% operating margin and -24.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -24.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -8.6% paired with -11.53% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -8.6% // FCF YLD: -11.53%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.20 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.20 // F-SCORE: 2/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $3.20 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Food Chains require continuous execution to defend -34.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -34.4% // D/E: 1.40x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -11.53%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -30.8%
NET MARGIN -34.4%
ROIC % -24.4%
REV GROWTH YOY -8.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 1.40x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.15%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 63.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // DNUTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $2.93
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>