ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CTO // CTO Realty Growth Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000023795 ↗
Financials • Real Estate Investment Trusts
$19.59 ▲ +0.56 (+2.94%)
MKT CAP: $759.3M • VOL: 589.6K
CTO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 62/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
62 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 58% • VS 200D +1.7% • RSI 59.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +8.5% • P/E N/A • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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CTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.26%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $19.76H $19.81L $19.51C $19.59VOL 415.4K
RES: $20.57SUP: $18.42SMA50: $20.65SMA200: $20.24
$23.06$21.62$20.18$18.73$17.29RES $20.57SUP $18.42$19.592026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
CTO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 4.8% return on invested capital within Financials (Real Estate Investment Trusts), balanced against a 22.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 22.7% operating margin and 4.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 4.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +20.1% paired with 8.51% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +20.1% // FCF YLD: 8.51%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 22.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $19.59 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Real Estate Investment Trusts require continuous execution to defend 1.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 22.1x
FCF YIELD 8.51%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 22.7%
NET MARGIN 1.7%
ROIC % 4.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +20.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 6.46%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.8
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CTOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $17.93
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>