ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

COLL // Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001267565 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations
$24.03 ▲ +0.80 (+3.44%)
MKT CAP: $782.3M • VOL: 656.5K
COLL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 72/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
72 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +61.1% vs NI -8.7% • ROIC-WACC +76.4% • Z 1.27
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 77% • VS 200D +6.4% • RSI 65.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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COLL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.76%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $24.28H $24.50L $23.66C $24.03VOL 401.9K
RES: $34.26SUP: $16.22SMA50: $23.30SMA200: $33.24
$41.83$36.30$30.77$25.24$19.71RES $34.26SUP $16.22$24.032026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
COLL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) exhibits 59.3% gross margins and 85.0% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), balanced against a 3.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 59.3% gross profitability converts into 23.0% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 85.0% // GM: 59.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +23.6% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +23.6% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.27 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.27 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 12.4x trailing P/E (10.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 12.4x // EV/EBITDA: 3.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $24.03 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations require continuous execution to defend 8.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 8.1% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 10.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 12.4x
FORWARD P/E 10.4x
EV / EBITDA 3.0x
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN 59.3%
OPERATING MARGIN 23.0%
NET MARGIN 8.1%
ROIC % 85.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +23.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.94
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // COLLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $21.99
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>