ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CHA // Chagee Holdings Limited

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0002013649 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Restaurants
$12.02 ▲ +0.33 (+2.82%)
MKT CAP: $2.29B • VOL: 414.5K
CHA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 80/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
80 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +0% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +76.4% • Z 5.09
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7.7% • P/E 12.7x • F-SCORE 5/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did CHA's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever CHA is Upgraded or Downgraded.

CHA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.29%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $12.13H $12.34L $12.00C $12.02VOL 922.7K
RES: $13.23SUP: $11.41SMA50: $11.77SMA200: $11.14
$15.21$13.63$12.04$10.45$8.87RES $13.23SUP $11.41$12.022026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
CHA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 85.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Restaurants), balanced against a 5.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 10.4% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 85.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 7.65% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 7.65%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.09 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.09 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 13.7x trailing P/E (12.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 13.7x // EV/EBITDA: 5.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $12.02 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Restaurants require continuous execution to defend 9.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 9.1% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 12.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 13.7x
FORWARD P/E 12.7x
EV / EBITDA 5.0x
FCF YIELD 7.65%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 10.4%
NET MARGIN 9.1%
ROIC % 85.0%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.88
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 7.69%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CHAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $11.00
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CHA & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>