ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

BGS // B&G Foods Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001278027 ↗
Consumer Staples • Packaged Foods
$2.26 ▲ +0.20 (+9.71%)
MKT CAP: $183.7M • VOL: 2.26M
BGS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 45/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
45 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
7 / 20
WARNING
FCF -31.7% vs NI +82.8% • ROIC-WACC -2.9% • Z 1.24
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 88% • VS 200D +9.2% • RSI 84
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did BGS's Forensic 10-K Risk & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever BGS is Upgraded or Downgraded.

BGS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -59.21%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $2.30H $2.41L $2.26C $2.26VOL 2.62M
RES: $2.98SUP: $1.87SMA50: $2.84SMA200: $4.10
$5.88$4.83$3.77$2.72$1.66RES $2.98SUP $1.87$2.262026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
BGS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 38/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

B&G Foods Inc. (BGS) exhibits 21.8% gross margins and 3.3% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Packaged Foods), balanced against a 16.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 21.8% gross profitability converts into 5.3% operating margin and 3.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.3% // GM: 21.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -5.4% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -5.4% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.24 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.24 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 16.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $2.26 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Packaged Foods require continuous execution to defend -2.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -2.4% // D/E: 4.30x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 16.8x
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN 21.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 5.3%
NET MARGIN -2.4%
ROIC % 3.3%
REV GROWTH YOY -5.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 4.30x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.2
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BGSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $2.07
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>