ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
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AWX // Avalon Holdings Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001061069 ↗
Utilities • Environmental Services
$2.53 ▼ -0.07 (-2.68%)
MKT CAP: $9.9M • VOL: 1.5K
AWX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
59 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +83.6% vs NI -75.6% • ROIC-WACC -5.4% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +20.8% • P/E 28.6x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

Why did AWX's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AWX is Upgraded or Downgraded.

AWX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.39%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $2.52H $2.60L $2.52C $2.53VOL 600
RES: $3.04SUP: $2.44SMA50: $2.59SMA200: $2.59
$2.92$2.79$2.66$2.52$2.39RES $3.04SUP $2.44$2.532026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
AWX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 40/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) exhibits 19.5% gross margins and 2.6% return on invested capital within Utilities (Environmental Services), balanced against a 9.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 19.5% gross profitability converts into 2.4% operating margin and 2.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.6% // GM: 19.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -0.3% paired with 20.84% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -0.3% // FCF YLD: 20.84%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 30.7x trailing P/E (28.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 30.7x // EV/EBITDA: 9.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $2.53 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Environmental Services require continuous execution to defend 0.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.4% // D/E: 0.73x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 28.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 30.7x
FORWARD P/E 28.6x
EV / EBITDA 9.7x
FCF YIELD 20.84%
GROSS MARGIN 19.5%
OPERATING MARGIN 2.4%
NET MARGIN 0.4%
ROIC % 2.6%
REV GROWTH YOY -0.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.08
DEBT / EQUITY 0.73x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 52.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AWXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $2.32
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>