ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AVA // Avista Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000104918 ↗
Utilities • Power Generation
$37.45 ▲ +0.44 (+1.19%)
MKT CAP: $3.14B • VOL: 501.2K
AVA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
48 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 57% • VS 200D +1.5% • RSI 54.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF YIELD -3.2% • P/E 15.2x • F-SCORE 4/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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AVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.88%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $37.76H $37.92L $37.39C $37.45VOL 644.5K
RES: $37.62SUP: $33.34SMA50: $36.57SMA200: $39.74
$43.70$41.20$38.69$36.19$33.68RES $37.62SUP $33.34$37.452026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
AVA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Avista Corporation (AVA) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 10.4% return on invested capital within Utilities (Power Generation), balanced against a 3.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 18.0% operating margin and 10.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 10.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +1.3% paired with -3.22% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +1.3% // FCF YLD: -3.22%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.84 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.84 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 16.3x trailing P/E (15.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 16.3x // EV/EBITDA: 3.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $37.45 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Power Generation require continuous execution to defend 9.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 9.8% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 15.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 16.3x
FORWARD P/E 15.2x
EV / EBITDA 3.7x
FCF YIELD -3.22%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 18.0%
NET MARGIN 9.8%
ROIC % 10.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +1.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.30
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 5.07%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.3
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AVAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $34.27
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>