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Avista Corporation (AVA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$37.45 +1.19% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.46

Avista Corporation (AVA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.14B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.46 (+0.02%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVA SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.6% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 33% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 18% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$35.49+3.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$36.67+2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$37.69-0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$37.45-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVA currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($36.57) and Max Pain ($39.32) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $45.68.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

60.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.84>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE33% OF RANGE

L: $34$37.45H: $44

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AVA

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (35)

10.4% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -3.22% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 0.84 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (55)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AVA

✓Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVA)

✓Walkthrough of AVA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.88%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $37.76H $37.92L $37.39C $37.45VOL 644.5K

RES: $37.62SUP: $33.34SMA50: $36.57SMA200: $39.74

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVA Butterfly Map → + Track AVA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVA)

Utilities Rank #82 of 117 ⚔️ NWE vs AVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (AVA vs. NWE, UTL, LNT, EVRG)

Industry: Power Generation (18 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avista Corporation (AVA) ranks #82 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #68 by equity capitalization ($3.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AVA leads on earnings valuation at 16.3x trailing P/E, while AVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.4% ROIC and — gross margin. LNT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with AVA at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVA ACTIVE Avista Corporation	D	48/100	16.3x	—	10.4%	+1.19%	$3.14B	Benchmark Subject
NWE NorthWestern Energy Group Inc.	D	50/100	26.9x	—	4.2%	+0.73%	$4.87B	/nwe-vs-ava →
UTL UNITIL Corporation	D	44/100	20.0x	—	6.5%	+0.49%	$1.00B	/utl-vs-ava →
LNT Alliant Energy Corporation	C	62/100	22.6x	85.7%	4.6%	+1.89%	$18.33B	/lnt-vs-ava →
EVRG Evergy Inc.	D	48/100	23.0x	—	5.2%	+1.38%	$19.69B	/evrg-vs-ava →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000104918

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avista Corporation (AVA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.96B (+1.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.94B , and +12.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $193.0M, operating cash flow of $469.0M, and free cash flow of -$101.0M (-10200.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVA closed FY2025 with $8.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.84, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.96B	$193.0M	$469.0M	-$101.0M	$8.36B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.94B	$180.0M	$534.0M	$1.0M	$7.94B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.75B	$171.0M	$447.0M	$447.0M	—	—

3. AVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Avista Corporation (NYSE: AVA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $37.45 (+1.19% 1D, market cap $3.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, AVA ranks #82 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVA compare to NWE and UTL in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Power Generation), AVA carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.4%. By comparison, NWE (NorthWestern Energy Group Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 26.9x, ROIC 4.2%, cap $4.87B) and UTL (UNITIL Corporation) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 20.0x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $1.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AVA leads on earnings multiple (16.3x) while AVA leads on capital efficiency (10.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVA?

Per AVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000104918), Avista Corporation generated $1.96B in revenue (+1.3% YoY), $193.0M in net income, and -$101.0M in free cash flow against $8.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVA last traded at $37.45 (+1.19% on volume of 501,183 shares), positioning the stock +2.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($36.57) and -5.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($39.74). Across its 52-week range of $34.46 to $43.50, AVA sits at the 33.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($36.10 to $38.80).

AVA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AVA stock right now?

Avista Corporation (AVA) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 48/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 16x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AVA's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AVA's 12-month base price target is $35.76 (range $27.89 to $45.68), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVA RQD Cockpit AVA 12M Forecast AVA Earnings & Move AVA Dividends & DRIP AVA Insiders & 13F AVA Whale Options AVA Profit Sankey AVA News & Why