Stock Ratings / Utilities / AVA / earnings

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Avista Corporation (AVA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±3.6% Move

$37.45 +1.19% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.46

Avista Corporation (AVA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.14B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.46 (+0.02%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVA SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.6% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 33% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 18% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$35.49+3.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$36.67+2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$37.69-0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$37.45-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVA currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($36.57) and Max Pain ($39.32) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $45.68.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±3.6% Swing Band

±$1.35 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AVA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 48/100

Trailing EPS: $2.30 • YoY Revenue Growth: 1.3%

Model Bullish Setup (48/100)Model Risk Weight (52/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.96B	$193.0M	-$101.0M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$1.94B	$180.0M	$1.0M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.75B	$171.0M	$447.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVA)

✓Walkthrough of AVA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.88%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $37.76H $37.92L $37.39C $37.45VOL 644.5K

RES: $37.62SUP: $33.34SMA50: $36.57SMA200: $39.74

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVA Butterfly Map → + Track AVA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVA)

Utilities Rank #82 of 117 ⚔️ NWE vs AVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (AVA vs. NWE, UTL, LNT, EVRG)

Industry: Power Generation (18 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avista Corporation (AVA) ranks #82 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #68 by equity capitalization ($3.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AVA leads on earnings valuation at 16.3x trailing P/E, while AVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.4% ROIC and — gross margin. LNT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with AVA at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVA ACTIVE Avista Corporation	D	48/100	16.3x	—	10.4%	+1.19%	$3.14B	Benchmark Subject
NWE NorthWestern Energy Group Inc.	D	50/100	26.9x	—	4.2%	+0.73%	$4.87B	/nwe-vs-ava →
UTL UNITIL Corporation	D	44/100	20.0x	—	6.5%	+0.49%	$1.00B	/utl-vs-ava →
LNT Alliant Energy Corporation	C	62/100	22.6x	85.7%	4.6%	+1.89%	$18.33B	/lnt-vs-ava →
EVRG Evergy Inc.	D	48/100	23.0x	—	5.2%	+1.38%	$19.69B	/evrg-vs-ava →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000104918

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avista Corporation (AVA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.96B (+1.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.94B , and +12.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $193.0M, operating cash flow of $469.0M, and free cash flow of -$101.0M (-10200.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVA closed FY2025 with $8.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.84, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.96B	$193.0M	$469.0M	-$101.0M	$8.36B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.94B	$180.0M	$534.0M	$1.0M	$7.94B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.75B	$171.0M	$447.0M	$447.0M	—	—

3. AVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Avista Corporation (NYSE: AVA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $37.45 (+1.19% 1D, market cap $3.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, AVA ranks #82 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVA compare to NWE and UTL in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Power Generation), AVA carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.4%. By comparison, NWE (NorthWestern Energy Group Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 26.9x, ROIC 4.2%, cap $4.87B) and UTL (UNITIL Corporation) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 20.0x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $1.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AVA leads on earnings multiple (16.3x) while AVA leads on capital efficiency (10.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVA?

Per AVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000104918), Avista Corporation generated $1.96B in revenue (+1.3% YoY), $193.0M in net income, and -$101.0M in free cash flow against $8.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVA last traded at $37.45 (+1.19% on volume of 501,183 shares), positioning the stock +2.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($36.57) and -5.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($39.74). Across its 52-week range of $34.46 to $43.50, AVA sits at the 33.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($36.10 to $38.80).

AVA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AVA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Avista Corporation (AVA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AVA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±3.6% event move for AVA, spanning a range between $36.1 and $38.8.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVA RQD Cockpit AVA 12M Forecast AVA Earnings & Move AVA Dividends & DRIP AVA Insiders & 13F AVA Whale Options AVA Profit Sankey AVA News & Why