ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ASTE // Astec Industries Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000792987 ↗
Industrials • Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks
$39.91 ▲ +0.94 (+2.41%)
MKT CAP: $918.9M • VOL: 197.0K
ASTE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 62/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
62 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +200% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -3% • Z 3.01
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
15 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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ASTE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -38.62%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $39.22H $39.91L $38.81C $39.91VOL 136.9K
RES: $40.78SUP: $37.08SMA50: $40.93SMA200: $50.78
$67.66$59.49$51.31$43.13$34.95RES $40.78SUP $37.08$39.912026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ASTE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Astec Industries Inc. (ASTE) exhibits 26.5% gross margins and 5.6% return on invested capital within Industrials (Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks), balanced against a 11.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 26.5% gross profitability converts into 4.7% operating margin and 5.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.6% // GM: 26.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.1% paired with 2.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.1% // FCF YLD: 2.25%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.01 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.01 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 23.7x trailing P/E (22.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 23.7x // EV/EBITDA: 11.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $39.91 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks require continuous execution to defend 2.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.8% // D/E: 0.47x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 23.7x
FORWARD P/E 22.0x
EV / EBITDA 11.6x
FCF YIELD 2.25%
GROSS MARGIN 26.5%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.7%
NET MARGIN 2.8%
ROIC % 5.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.69
DEBT / EQUITY 0.47x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.29%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 46.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ASTEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $36.52
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ASTE & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>