ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ASTE // Astec Industries Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000792987 ↗
Industrials • Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks
$39.27 ▼ -0.64 (-1.60%)
MKT CAP: $918.9M • VOL: 137.0K
ASTE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C (RQD 62) -> D (RQD 49)
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
49 / 100 -13D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +200% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -3% • Z 3.01
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
6 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 9% • VS 200D -21.3% • RSI 50.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
15 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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ASTE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.20%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $38.97H $39.91L $38.97C $39.27VOL 197.0K
RES: $40.68SUP: $36.99SMA50: $40.86SMA200: $50.74
$66.89$58.92$50.96$42.99$35.02RES $40.68SUP $36.99$39.272026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
ASTE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Astec Industries Inc. (ASTE) exhibits 26.5% gross margins and 5.6% return on invested capital within Industrials (Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks), balanced against a 11.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 26.5% gross profitability converts into 4.7% operating margin and 5.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.6% // GM: 26.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.1% paired with 2.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.1% // FCF YLD: 2.25%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.01 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.01 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 23.7x trailing P/E (22.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 23.7x // EV/EBITDA: 11.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $39.27 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks require continuous execution to defend 2.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.8% // D/E: 0.47x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 23.7x
FORWARD P/E 22.0x
EV / EBITDA 11.6x
FCF YIELD 2.25%
GROSS MARGIN 26.5%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.7%
NET MARGIN 2.8%
ROIC % 5.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.69
DEBT / EQUITY 0.47x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.29%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ASTEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $35.93
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>