ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ASPN // Aspen Aerogels Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001145986 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • RETAIL: Building Materials
$5.39 ▼ -0.11 (-2.00%)
MKT CAP: $447.3M • VOL: 711.6K
ASPN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 25/100 [E] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
25 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
5 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF +88.8% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -43.6% • Z 0.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
6 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 39% • VS 200D -3.7% • RSI 42.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
6 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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ASPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +45.28%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $5.15H $5.39L $4.97C $5.39VOL 1.18M
RES: $9.85SUP: $5.01SMA50: $5.25SMA200: $4.67
$8.43$7.07$5.71$4.35$2.99RES $9.85SUP $5.01$5.392026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ASPN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) exhibits 17.0% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (RETAIL: Building Materials), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 17.0% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: 17.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -40.1% paired with -1.02% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -40.1% // FCF YLD: -1.02%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.20 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.20 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $5.39 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in RETAIL: Building Materials require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -1.02%
GROSS MARGIN 17.0%
OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -35.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -40.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 42.8
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ASPNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $4.93
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>