ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ARI // Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001467760 ↗
Financials • Real Estate Investment Trusts
$6.45 ▼ -0.11 (-1.68%)
MKT CAP: $827.0M • VOL: 7.60M
ARI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
59 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -28.8% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -2.2% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +17.2% • P/E 6x • F-SCORE 5/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did ARI's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ARI is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ARI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.04%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $2.32H $6.45L $2.30C $6.45VOL 9.96M
RES: $6.67SUP: $1.19SMA50: $6.42SMA200: $9.11
$11.73$9.17$6.62$4.06$1.51RES $6.67SUP $1.19$6.452026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ARI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 38/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 6.8% return on invested capital within Financials (Real Estate Investment Trusts), balanced against a 6.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 6.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -10.6% paired with 17.23% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -10.6% // FCF YLD: 17.23%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 6.5x trailing P/E (6.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 6.5x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $6.45 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Real Estate Investment Trusts require continuous execution to defend 46.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 46.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 6.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 6.5x
FORWARD P/E 6.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 17.23%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN 46.7%
ROIC % 6.8%
REV GROWTH YOY -10.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.99
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 8.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ARIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $5.90
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>