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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell ARI stock right now?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold — HOLD) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (7% return on capital), mixed timing at 7x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

Q: What is ARI's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ARI's 12-month base price target is $6.48 (range $5.05 to $11.8), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$6.45 -1.68% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.42

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $827.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.42 (-0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 52.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARI SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$6.24+2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$6.38+0.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$6.42+0.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$6.45+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, ARI faces multiple-compression risk if 6.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($6.42) or 200D SMA ($9.11) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.48) toward Bear Floor ($5.05).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

1230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE46% OF RANGE

L: $2$6.45H: $11

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ARI

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (50)

6.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 17.23% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (60)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ARI

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ARI Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.04%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $2.32H $6.45L $2.30C $6.45VOL 9.96M

RES: $6.67SUP: $1.19SMA50: $6.42SMA200: $9.11

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARI Butterfly Map → + Track ARI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-9.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARI)

Financials Rank #549 of 1096 ⚔️ SVC vs ARI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARI vs. SVC, SAFE, ESRT, INN)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) ranks #549 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #596 by equity capitalization ($827.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARI leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while ESRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.6% ROIC and — gross margin. SAFE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with ARI at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARI ACTIVE Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc	C-	59/100	6.5x	—	6.8%	-1.68%	$827.0M	Benchmark Subject
SVC Service Properties Trust of	D+	53/100	—	—	-31.3%	+1.75%	$830.2M	/svc-vs-ari →
SAFE Safehold Inc.	C+	66/100	7.0x	—	3.3%	+3.37%	$803.1M	/safe-vs-ari →
ESRT Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)	D+	57/100	—	—	11.6%	+1.61%	$869.4M	/esrt-vs-ari →
INN Summit Hotel Properties Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	6.3%	+0.97%	$784.1M	/inn-vs-ari →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001467760

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) reported GAAP revenue of $271.6M (-10.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $303.7M , and -21.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $126.7M, operating cash flow of $142.5M, and free cash flow of $142.5M (-28.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARI closed FY2025 with $9.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$271.6M	$126.7M	$142.5M	$142.5M	$9.90B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$303.7M	-$119.6M	$200.3M	$200.3M	$8.41B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$344.6M	$58.1M	$273.9M	$273.9M	—	—

3. ARI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (NYSE: ARI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $6.45 (-1.68% 1D, market cap $827.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ARI ranks #549 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARI compare to SVC and SAFE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ARI carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, SVC (Service Properties Trust of) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.3%, cap $830.2M) and SAFE (Safehold Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 7.0x, ROIC 3.3%, cap $803.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARI leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while ESRT leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARI?

Per ARI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001467760), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc generated $271.6M in revenue (-10.6% YoY), $126.7M in net income, and $142.5M in free cash flow against $9.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARI last traded at $6.45 (-1.68% on volume of 7,601,138 shares), positioning the stock +0.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.42) and -29.20% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.11). Across its 52-week range of $2.30 to $11.24, ARI sits at the 46.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 8.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($6.15 to $6.75).

ARI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ARI stock right now?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold — HOLD) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (7% return on capital), mixed timing at 7x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ARI's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ARI's 12-month base price target is $6.48 (range $5.05 to $11.8), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARI RQD Cockpit ARI 12M Forecast ARI Earnings & Move ARI Dividends & DRIP ARI Insiders & 13F ARI Whale Options ARI Profit Sankey ARI News & Why