Stock Ratings / Financials / ARI / dividends

SVC (38) SAFE (51) ESRT (46) INN (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$6.45 -1.68% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.42

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $827.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (NYSE: ARI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $6.45 (-1.68% 1D, market cap $827.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ARI ranks #465 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARI compare to SVC and SAFE in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ARI carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, SVC (Service Properties Trust of) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.3%, cap $830.2M) and SAFE (Safehold Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 7.0x, ROIC 3.3%, cap $803.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARI leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while ESRT leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARI?

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Per ARI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001467760), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc generated $271.6M in revenue (-10.6% YoY), $126.7M in net income, and $142.5M in free cash flow against $9.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.42 (-0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 52.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARI SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$6.30+0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$6.32+4.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$6.60-2.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$6.45+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, ARI faces multiple-compression risk if 6.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($6.41) or 200D SMA ($9.09) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.48) toward Bear Floor ($5.05).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

1.8% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $307/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.6K

Yr 1

$11.1K

Yr 2

$11.7K

Yr 3

$12.4K

Yr 4

$13.1K

Yr 5

$13.8K

Yr 6

$14.5K

Yr 7

$15.3K

Yr 8

$16.2K

Yr 9

$17.1K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in ARI & A-Rated Leaders

✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on ARI and its top sector peer
✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.31%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $6.56H $6.56L $6.45C $6.45VOL 7.60M

RES: $6.66SUP: $1.11SMA50: $6.41SMA200: $9.09

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARI Butterfly Map → + Track ARI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-9.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARI)

Financials Rank #465 of 1096 ⚔️ SVC vs ARI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARI vs. SVC, SAFE, ESRT, INN)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) ranks #465 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #596 by equity capitalization ($827.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARI leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while ESRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.6% ROIC and — gross margin. ARI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARI ACTIVE Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc	C-	59/100	6.5x	—	6.8%	-1.68%	$827.0M	Benchmark Subject
SVC Service Properties Trust of	D-	38/100	—	—	-31.3%	+1.75%	$830.2M	/svc-vs-ari →
SAFE Safehold Inc.	D	51/100	7.0x	—	3.3%	+3.37%	$803.1M	/safe-vs-ari →
ESRT Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)	D	46/100	—	—	11.6%	+1.61%	$869.4M	/esrt-vs-ari →
INN Summit Hotel Properties Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	6.3%	+0.97%	$784.1M	/inn-vs-ari →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001467760

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) reported GAAP revenue of $271.6M (-10.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $303.7M , and -21.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $126.7M, operating cash flow of $142.5M, and free cash flow of $142.5M (-28.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARI closed FY2025 with $9.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$271.6M	$126.7M	$142.5M	$142.5M	$9.90B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$303.7M	-$119.6M	$200.3M	$200.3M	$8.41B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$344.6M	$58.1M	$273.9M	$273.9M	—	—

3. ARI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ARI compare to SVC and SAFE in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARI?

Where is ARI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARI last traded at $6.45 (-1.68% on volume of 7,601,138 shares), positioning the stock +0.62% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.41) and -29.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.09). Across its 52-week range of $2.30 to $11.24, ARI sits at the 46.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($6.16 to $6.74).

ARI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does ARI pay a dividend and is it safe?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 1.8% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARI RQD Cockpit ARI 12M Forecast ARI Earnings & Move ARI Dividends & DRIP ARI Insiders & 13F ARI Whale Options ARI Profit Sankey ARI News & Why