ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

APEI // American Public Education Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001201792 ↗
Real Estate • Other Consumer Services
$44.30 ▲ +0.28 (+0.64%)
MKT CAP: $810.8M • VOL: 113.4K
APEI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 69/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
69 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +65.9% vs NI +95.8% • ROIC-WACC +8.6% • Z 4.08
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +5.7% • P/E 23.9x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did APEI's Whale & Options Flow & Macro Regime Fit sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever APEI is Upgraded or Downgraded.

APEI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.82%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $44.30H $44.30L $40.41C $44.30VOL 323.2K
RES: $51.01SUP: $37.10SMA50: $45.37SMA200: $49.74
$61.35$55.58$49.81$44.04$38.27RES $51.01SUP $37.10$44.302026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
APEI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 53/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

American Public Education Inc. (APEI) exhibits 54.2% gross margins and 17.6% return on invested capital within Real Estate (Other Consumer Services), balanced against a 11.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 54.2% gross profitability converts into 7.4% operating margin and 17.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 17.6% // GM: 54.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +3.9% paired with 5.69% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +3.9% // FCF YLD: 5.69%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.08 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.08 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 25.7x trailing P/E (23.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 25.7x // EV/EBITDA: 11.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $44.30 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Other Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend 4.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.9% // D/E: 0.32x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 25.7x
FORWARD P/E 23.9x
EV / EBITDA 11.9x
FCF YIELD 5.69%
GROSS MARGIN 54.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 7.4%
NET MARGIN 4.9%
ROIC % 17.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +3.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.72
DEBT / EQUITY 0.32x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 28.8
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // APEIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $40.54
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for APEI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>