ROARABLE // PRO
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ALTO // Alto Ingredients Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000778164 ↗
Materials • Major Chemicals
$3.65 ▼ -0.01 (-0.27%)
MKT CAP: $283.1M • VOL: 668.9K
ALTO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
48 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +159.3% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC -7.2% • Z 0.98
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +3.1% • P/E N/A • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

Why did ALTO's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ALTO is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ALTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.88%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $3.60H $3.67L $3.58C $3.65VOL 625.9K
RES: $3.71SUP: $3.26SMA50: $3.83SMA200: $4.28
$6.37$5.29$4.21$3.13$2.06RES $3.71SUP $3.26$3.652026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ALTO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 38/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) exhibits 3.8% gross margins and 2.0% return on invested capital within Materials (Major Chemicals), balanced against a 28.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 3.8% gross profitability converts into 0.8% operating margin and 2.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.0% // GM: 3.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -4.9% paired with 3.05% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -4.9% // FCF YLD: 3.05%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.98 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.98 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 28.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $3.65 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Chemicals require continuous execution to defend 0.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.0% // D/E: 0.26x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 28.6x
FCF YIELD 3.05%
GROSS MARGIN 3.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 0.8%
NET MARGIN 0.0%
ROIC % 2.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -4.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.26x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 45.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ALTOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $3.34
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>