ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ALGT // Allegiant Travel Company

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001362468 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Air Freight/Delivery Services
$72.86 ▲ +0.60 (+0.83%)
MKT CAP: $1.99B • VOL: 358.6K
ALGT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 50/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
50 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +96.1% vs NI +81.4% • ROIC-WACC -5.9% • Z 1.26
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 65% • VS 200D +5.5% • RSI 55.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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ALGT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.68%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $71.50H $72.86L $69.07C $72.86VOL 358.4K
RES: $128.4SUP: $63.43SMA50: $75.55SMA200: $87.53
$127.7$110.8$93.79$76.82$59.85RES $128.4SUP $63.43$72.862026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ALGT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 1.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Air Freight/Delivery Services), balanced against a 11.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 1.6% operating margin and 1.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 1.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.8% paired with 3.77% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.8% // FCF YLD: 3.77%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.26 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.26 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 11.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $72.86 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Air Freight/Delivery Services require continuous execution to defend -1.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -1.9% // D/E: 1.60x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 11.5x
FCF YIELD 3.77%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 1.6%
NET MARGIN -1.9%
ROIC % 1.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 1.60x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 46.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ALGTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $66.67
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>