ROARABLE // PRO
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ACRE // Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001529377 ↗
Financials • Real Estate Investment Trusts
$3.42 ▲ +0.00 (0.00%)
MKT CAP: $189.7M • VOL: 718.6K
ACRE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 46/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
46 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF -39.9% vs NI +97.4% • ROIC-WACC -9.2% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 9 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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ACRE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -34.61%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $3.41H $3.43L $3.28C $3.42VOL 525.9K
RES: $4.53SUP: $3.06SMA50: $4.02SMA200: $4.67
$5.48$4.85$4.22$3.59$2.96RES $4.53SUP $3.06$3.422026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ACRE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -0.2% return on invested capital within Financials (Real Estate Investment Trusts), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and -0.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -0.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -21.3% paired with 11.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -21.3% // FCF YLD: 11.25%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $3.42 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Real Estate Investment Trusts require continuous execution to defend -1.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -1.6% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 11.25%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN -1.6%
ROIC % -0.2%
REV GROWTH YOY -21.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 34.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ACREPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $3.13
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>