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Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.42 0.00% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.41

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $189.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.41 (-0.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 38.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACRE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ACRE SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 10% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 34.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$3.55-2.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$3.45-2.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$3.35+2.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.42-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ACRE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ACRE currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.02) and Max Pain ($3.59) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.18.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACRE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ACRE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

34.530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE10% OF RANGE

L: $3$3.42H: $6

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on ACRE

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

-0.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 11.25% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (45)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ACRE

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ACRE)

✓Walkthrough of ACRE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ACRE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -34.61%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $3.41H $3.43L $3.28C $3.42VOL 525.9K

RES: $4.53SUP: $3.06SMA50: $4.02SMA200: $4.67

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACRE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ACRE Butterfly Map → + Track ACRE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -21.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACRE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACRE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACRE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACRE)

Financials Rank #925 of 1096 ⚔️ RC vs ACRE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ACRE vs. RC, MITT, SITC, STRW)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) ranks #925 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #895 by equity capitalization ($189.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MITT leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while STRW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. STRW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with ACRE at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ACRE ACTIVE Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation	D	46/100	—	—	-0.2%	0.00%	$189.7M	Benchmark Subject
RC Ready Capital Corporation	D	48/100	—	—	-14.3%	-2.54%	$190.0M	/rc-vs-acre →
MITT TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc.	D+	57/100	3.7x	—	8.7%	+1.42%	$181.3M	/mitt-vs-acre →
SITC SITE Centers Corp.	C+	67/100	—	—	53.1%	+0.79%	$200.5M	/sitc-vs-acre →
STRW Strawberry Fields REIT Inc.	B+	76/100	23.5x	—	85.0%	+1.37%	$178.1M	/strw-vs-acre →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001529377

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) reported GAAP revenue of $54.8M (-21.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $69.7M , and -41.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$902.0K, operating cash flow of $21.4M, and free cash flow of $21.4M (-39.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACRE closed FY2025 with $1.62B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$54.8M	-$902.0K	$21.4M	$21.4M	$1.62B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$69.7M	-$35.0M	$35.5M	$35.5M	$1.75B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$92.9M	-$38.9M	$46.8M	$46.8M	—	—

3. ACRE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ACRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE: ACRE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $3.42 (0.00% 1D, market cap $189.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ACRE ranks #925 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ACRE compare to RC and MITT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ACRE carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, RC (Ready Capital Corporation) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.3%, cap $190.0M) and MITT (TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 3.7x, ROIC 8.7%, cap $181.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MITT leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACRE?

Per ACRE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001529377), Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation generated $54.8M in revenue (-21.3% YoY), -$902.0K in net income, and $21.4M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ACRE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ACRE last traded at $3.42 (0.00% on volume of 718,582 shares), positioning the stock -14.93% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.02) and -26.77% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.67). Across its 52-week range of $3.16 to $5.89, ACRE sits at the 9.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.8% ($3.12 to $3.72).

ACRE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ACRE stock right now?

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 46/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ACRE's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ACRE's 12-month base price target is $3.24 (range $2.53 to $6.18), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ACRE RQD Cockpit ACRE 12M Forecast ACRE Earnings & Move ACRE Dividends & DRIP ACRE Insiders & 13F ACRE Whale Options ACRE Profit Sankey ACRE News & Why