MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why ACRE Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$3.42 0.00% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.41
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $189.7M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.41 (-0.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 38.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACRE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ACRE SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (22% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 10% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 34.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$3.55-2.8% Next Q
54
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$3.45-2.9% Next Q
51
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$3.35+2.1% Next Q
49
CurrentGrade D$3.42-6.1% Hist 90D α
46
Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ACRE Turnaround Squeeze
While ACRE currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.02) and Max Pain ($3.59) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.18.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACRE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ACRE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ACRE Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) slipped 0.00% to $3.42, trading at 10% of its 52-week range ($3.16 – $5.89). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 10% of its 52-week range ($3.16 – $5.89) with RSI-14 at 34.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.8% around $3.42 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $21.4M annual free cash flow.
Live ACRE Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 5h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 5h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 9h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ACRE)
- ✓Walkthrough of ACRE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ACRE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -34.61%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $3.41H $3.43L $3.28C $3.42VOL 525.9K
RES: $4.53SUP: $3.06SMA50: $4.02SMA200: $4.67
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ACRE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -21.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACRE today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACRE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACRE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACRE)
Financials Rank #925 of 1096
⚔️ RC vs ACRE Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ACRE vs. RC, MITT, SITC, STRW)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) ranks #925 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #895 by equity capitalization ($189.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MITT leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while STRW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. STRW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with ACRE at 46/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACRE
ACTIVE
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation | D | 46/100 | — | — | -0.2% | 0.00% | $189.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| RC Ready Capital Corporation | D | 48/100 | — | — | -14.3% | -2.54% | $190.0M | /rc-vs-acre → |
| MITT TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | 3.7x | — | 8.7% | +1.42% | $181.3M | /mitt-vs-acre → |
| SITC SITE Centers Corp. | C+ | 67/100 | — | — | 53.1% | +0.79% | $200.5M | /sitc-vs-acre → |
| STRW Strawberry Fields REIT Inc. | B+ | 76/100 | 23.5x | — | 85.0% | +1.37% | $178.1M | /strw-vs-acre → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001529377In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) reported GAAP revenue of $54.8M (-21.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $69.7M , and -41.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$902.0K, operating cash flow of $21.4M, and free cash flow of $21.4M (-39.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACRE closed FY2025 with $1.62B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $54.8M | -$902.0K | $21.4M | $21.4M | $1.62B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $69.7M | -$35.0M | $35.5M | $35.5M | $1.75B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $92.9M | -$38.9M | $46.8M | $46.8M | — | — |
3. ACRE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ACRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE: ACRE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $3.42 (0.00% 1D, market cap $189.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ACRE ranks #925 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ACRE compare to RC and MITT in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ACRE carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, RC (Ready Capital Corporation) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.3%, cap $190.0M) and MITT (TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 3.7x, ROIC 8.7%, cap $181.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MITT leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACRE?
Per ACRE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001529377), Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation generated $54.8M in revenue (-21.3% YoY), -$902.0K in net income, and $21.4M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ACRE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ACRE last traded at $3.42 (0.00% on volume of 718,582 shares), positioning the stock -14.93% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.02) and -26.77% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.67). Across its 52-week range of $3.16 to $5.89, ACRE sits at the 9.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.8% ($3.12 to $3.72).
ACRE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ACRE stock moving today?
Why ACRE Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.