REFI (57) AIV (57) BRT (49) SITC (67) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell NXDT stock right now?

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 36/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

Q: What is NXDT's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NXDT's 12-month base price target is $3.88 (range $3.03 to $6.25), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$4.31 -17.75% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.16

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $228.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.16 (-3.38%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 10.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NXDT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NXDT SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10.7% FCF Margin ($9.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$5.15-4.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$4.90-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.89-11.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$4.31-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NXDT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NXDT currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.18) and Max Pain ($4.53) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.25.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NXDT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NXDT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

24.530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE52% OF RANGE

L: $3$4.31H: $6

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 9 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on NXDT

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

-0.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 4.00% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (28)

9/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NXDT

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NXDT)

✓Walkthrough of NXDT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NXDT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.48%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $4.23H $4.37L $3.81C $4.31VOL 398.5K

RES: $5.38SUP: $3.15SMA50: $5.18SMA200: $4.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NXDT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NXDT Butterfly Map → + Track NXDT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NXDT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NXDT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NXDT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NXDT)

Financials Rank #1022 of 1096 ⚔️ REFI vs NXDT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NXDT vs. REFI, AIV, BRT, SITC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) ranks #1022 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #864 by equity capitalization ($228.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REFI leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while AIV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SITC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with NXDT at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NXDT ACTIVE NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust	D-	36/100	—	—	-0.2%	-17.75%	$228.9M	Benchmark Subject
REFI Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.	D+	57/100	6.4x	—	11.7%	-0.88%	$229.6M	/refi-vs-nxdt →
AIV Apartment Investment and Management Company	D+	57/100	—	—	85.0%	+1.86%	$238.2M	/aiv-vs-nxdt →
BRT BRT Apartments Corp. (MD)	D	49/100	—	—	-6.5%	+2.31%	$249.6M	/brt-vs-nxdt →
SITC SITE Centers Corp.	C+	67/100	—	—	53.1%	+0.79%	$200.5M	/sitc-vs-nxdt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001356115

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) reported GAAP revenue of $86.0M (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $83.2M , and +35.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$127.0M, operating cash flow of $9.2M, and free cash flow of $9.2M (+178.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NXDT closed FY2025 with $1.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$86.0M	-$127.0M	$9.2M	$9.2M	$1.07B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$83.2M	-$56.6M	-$11.7M	-$11.7M	$1.22B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$63.3M	-$117.2M	-$24.3M	-$24.3M	—	—

3. NXDT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NXDT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NYSE: NXDT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $4.31 (-17.75% 1D, market cap $228.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NXDT ranks #1022 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NXDT compare to REFI and AIV in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), NXDT carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, REFI (Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $229.6M) and AIV (Apartment Investment and Management Company) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $238.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXDT?

Per NXDT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001356115), NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust generated $86.0M in revenue (+3.3% YoY), -$127.0M in net income, and $9.2M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NXDT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NXDT last traded at $4.31 (-17.75% on volume of 498,331 shares), positioning the stock -16.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.18) and -12.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.94). Across its 52-week range of $2.55 to $5.95, NXDT sits at the 51.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.4% ($3.86 to $4.76).

NXDT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell NXDT stock right now?

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 36/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is NXDT's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NXDT's 12-month base price target is $3.88 (range $3.03 to $6.25), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: NXDT RQD Cockpit NXDT 12M Forecast NXDT Earnings & Move NXDT Dividends & DRIP NXDT Insiders & 13F NXDT Whale Options NXDT Profit Sankey NXDT News & Why