COMP <GO>
ZTO vs SAIA // OPTIONS IMPLIED MOVE & PUT/CALL SKEW
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (NYSE) VS. Saia Inc. (NASDAQ) • 15-METRIC TALLY: ZTO 10
— SAIA 3
■ METRIC PARITY
LAST: $19.88 (+0.66%) • MKT CAP: $15.31B
options-implied-move
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LAST: $343.07 (+5.68%) • MKT CAP: $9.15B
options-implied-move
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15-METRIC INSTITUTIONAL SIDE-BY-SIDE SCORECARD (ZTO VS. SAIA)
EMERALD CELL = QUANTITATIVE EDGE
| INSTITUTIONAL METRIC | ZTO | SAIA | SPREAD (A - B) | ADVANTAGE | DEDICATED URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | 25.00% | — | — | TIE | /gross-margins <GO> |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 12.50% | 8.50% | +4.00 | ZTO | /roic <GO> |
| EV/EBITDA & P/E Valuation | 7.2x | 11.8x | -4.60 | ZTO | /valuation <GO> |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 6.31% | 0.30% | +6.01 | ZTO | /fcf-yield <GO> |
| Operating Margin | 21.30% | 10.90% | +10.40 | ZTO | /operating-margins <GO> |
| Net Profit Margin | 18.50% | 7.90% | +10.60 | ZTO | /net-margins <GO> |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 6.60% | 0.80% | +5.80 | ZTO | /revenue-growth <GO> |
| Dividend Yield & FCF Payout Safety | 3.51% | 0.00% | +3.51 | ZTO | /dividend-safety <GO> |
| Altman Z-Score & Debt/Equity | 4.41 | 5.52 | -1.11 | SAIA | /balance-sheet <GO> |
| Piotroski F-Score Quality | 8/9 | 7/9 | +1.00 | ZTO | /piotroski-score <GO> |
| Options Implied Move & Put/Call Skew ACTIVE | — | — | — | TIE | /options-implied-move <GO> |
| RSI-14 & 200D SMA Momentum | 46.0 | 52.0 | -6.00 | SAIA | /rsi-technicals <GO> |
| 10Y Yield & FRED Macro Beta | 1.11 | 1.12 | -0.01 | SAIA | /macro-sensitivity <GO> |
| Forward P/E Multiple | 11.0x | 33.4x | -22.40 | ZTO | /forward-pe <GO> |
| Enterprise Scale & Market Cap | $15.31B | $9.15B | $6.15B | ZTO | /market-cap <GO> |
5-YEAR HISTORICAL XBRL REVENUE & MARGIN TRAJECTORY SEC FORM 10-K FY
| FISCAL YEAR | ZTO REV | SAIA REV | ZTO GROSS % | SAIA GROSS % | ZTO FCF | SAIA FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $7.02B | $3.23B | 25.0% | — | $965.8M | $27.3M |
| FY 2024 | $6.07B | $3.21B | 31.0% | — | $852.3M | -$459.9M |
| FY 2023 | $0 | $2.88B | — | — | $1.88B | $448.3M |
FRED MACRO REGIME CORRELATION COMPARISON PEARSON r
ZTO // BETA 1.11
SAIA // BETA 1.12