ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

VITL // Vital Farms Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001579733 ↗
Consumer Staples • Packaged Foods
$9.29 ▲ +0.04 (+0.43%)
MKT CAP: $398.8M • VOL: 967.1K
VITL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
48 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -120% vs NI +24.1% • ROIC-WACC +14.5% • Z 4.18
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 8 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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VITL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.94%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $9.35H $9.63L $8.54C $9.29VOL 2.43M
RES: $11.49SUP: $7.89SMA50: $9.78SMA200: $14.00
$33.45$26.54$19.63$12.72$5.81RES $11.49SUP $7.89$9.292026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
VITL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 67/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) exhibits 37.6% gross margins and 23.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Packaged Foods), balanced against a 6.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 37.6% gross profitability converts into 11.6% operating margin and 23.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 23.1% // GM: 37.6%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +25.3% paired with -12.09% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +25.3% // FCF YLD: -12.09%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.18 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.18 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 6.0x trailing P/E (5.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 6.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $9.29 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Packaged Foods require continuous execution to defend 8.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 8.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 5.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 6.0x
FORWARD P/E 5.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -12.09%
GROSS MARGIN 37.6%
OPERATING MARGIN 11.6%
NET MARGIN 8.7%
ROIC % 23.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +25.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.54
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 42.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // VITLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $8.50
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for VITL & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>