ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

UPBD // Upbound Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000933036 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Diversified Commercial Services
$19.98 ▲ +3.07 (+18.16%)
MKT CAP: $1.16B • VOL: 3.15M
UPBD // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 79/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
79 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +200% vs NI -41.1% • ROIC-WACC +22.1% • Z 2.36
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 95% • VS 200D +17.8% • RSI 84
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +20.5% • P/E 14.9x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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UPBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.11%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $20.05H $20.92L $19.71C $19.98VOL 2.61M
RES: $19.94SUP: $14.44SMA50: $17.23SMA200: $18.87
$23.67$21.31$18.96$16.60$14.25RES $19.94SUP $14.44$19.982026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
UPBD // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 64/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) exhibits 48.4% gross margins and 30.7% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Diversified Commercial Services), balanced against a 3.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 48.4% gross profitability converts into 4.8% operating margin and 30.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 30.7% // GM: 48.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.7% paired with 20.49% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.7% // FCF YLD: 20.49%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.36 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.36 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 16.0x trailing P/E (14.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 16.0x // EV/EBITDA: 3.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $19.98 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Diversified Commercial Services require continuous execution to defend 1.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.6% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 14.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 16.0x
FORWARD P/E 14.9x
EV / EBITDA 3.7x
FCF YIELD 20.49%
GROSS MARGIN 48.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.8%
NET MARGIN 1.6%
ROIC % 30.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.25
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 7.54%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 78.4
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // UPBDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $18.28
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>