ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TLYS // Tilly's Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001524025 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores
$4.34 ▼ -0.02 (-0.46%)
MKT CAP: $132.7M • VOL: 83.3K
TLYS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 31/100 [E] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
31 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
6 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF +98.8% vs NI +62.2% • ROIC-WACC -43.6% • Z 1.61
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
8 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 46% • VS 200D -1.4% • RSI 47.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
6 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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TLYS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.63%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $4.26H $4.34L $4.15C $4.34VOL 163.7K
RES: $6.47SUP: $4.15SMA50: $4.33SMA200: $3.74
$6.54$5.34$4.13$2.93$1.73RES $6.47SUP $4.15$4.342026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
TLYS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) exhibits 29.7% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 29.7% gross profitability converts into -3.5% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: 29.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with -0.44% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: -0.44%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.61 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.61 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $4.34 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores require continuous execution to defend -3.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -3.2% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -0.44%
GROSS MARGIN 29.7%
OPERATING MARGIN -3.5%
NET MARGIN -3.2%
ROIC % -35.0%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TLYSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $3.97
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>