ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SWBI // Smith & Wesson Brands Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001092796 ↗
Industrials • Ordnance And Accessories
$13.66 ▼ -0.23 (-1.66%)
MKT CAP: $735.4M • VOL: 458.3K
SWBI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 67/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
67 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI +37.7% • ROIC-WACC -1.9% • Z 5.08
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did SWBI's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever SWBI is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SWBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.10%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $13.56H $13.67L $13.13C $13.66VOL 569.6K
RES: $15.24SUP: $11.06SMA50: $13.78SMA200: $13.99
$18.04$16.04$14.04$12.04$10.04RES $15.24SUP $11.06$13.662026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
SWBI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. (SWBI) exhibits 26.9% gross margins and 6.7% return on invested capital within Industrials (Ordnance And Accessories), balanced against a 14.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 26.9% gross profitability converts into 5.6% operating margin and 6.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.7% // GM: 26.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.4% paired with 12.30% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.4% // FCF YLD: 12.30%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.08 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.08 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 39.8x trailing P/E (37.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 39.8x // EV/EBITDA: 14.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $13.66 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Ordnance And Accessories require continuous execution to defend 3.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.5% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 37.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 39.8x
FORWARD P/E 37.0x
EV / EBITDA 14.5x
FCF YIELD 12.30%
GROSS MARGIN 26.9%
OPERATING MARGIN 5.6%
NET MARGIN 3.5%
ROIC % 6.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +10.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.34
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.16%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 35.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SWBIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $12.50
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SWBI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>