ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

RCEL // Avita Medical Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001762303 ↗
Health Care • Medical/Dental Instruments
$16.71 ▲ +0.21 (+1.27%)
MKT CAP: $516.8M • VOL: 313.0K
RCEL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 44/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
44 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF +44.5% vs NI +21.4% • ROIC-WACC -43.6% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 65% • VS 200D +3.3% • RSI 56.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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RCEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +286.81%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $16.54H $16.71L $15.24C $16.71VOL 596.6K
RES: $14.33SUP: $5.55SMA50: $12.21SMA200: $6.55
$17.82$14.00$10.18$6.36$2.54RES $14.33SUP $5.55$16.712026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
RCEL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) exhibits 82.1% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medical/Dental Instruments), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 82.1% gross profitability converts into -59.4% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: 82.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +11.5% paired with -6.23% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +11.5% // FCF YLD: -6.23%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $16.71 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medical/Dental Instruments require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -6.23%
GROSS MARGIN 82.1%
OPERATING MARGIN -59.4%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -35.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +11.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 66.2
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // RCELPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $15.29
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>