ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

POST // Post Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001530950 ↗
Consumer Staples • Packaged Foods
$81.65 ▲ +1.37 (+1.71%)
MKT CAP: $3.59B • VOL: 636.3K
POST // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 57/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
57 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +7.1% vs NI -8.5% • ROIC-WACC -0.8% • Z 1.38
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 70% • VS 200D +4.6% • RSI 59.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did POST's Forensic 10-K Risk & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever POST is Upgraded or Downgraded.

POST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.05%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $83.77H $84.12L $81.65C $81.65VOL 552.5K
RES: $79.40SUP: $69.15SMA50: $78.47SMA200: $92.06
$108.4$98.37$88.36$78.35$68.34RES $79.40SUP $69.15$81.652026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
POST // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Post Holdings Inc. (POST) exhibits 28.7% gross margins and 5.9% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Packaged Foods), balanced against a 13.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 28.7% gross profitability converts into 9.8% operating margin and 5.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.9% // GM: 28.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +3.0% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +3.0% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.38 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.38 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 10.7x trailing P/E (10.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 10.7x // EV/EBITDA: 13.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $81.65 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Packaged Foods require continuous execution to defend 4.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.1% // D/E: 2.16x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 10.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 10.7x
FORWARD P/E 10.0x
EV / EBITDA 13.5x
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN 28.7%
OPERATING MARGIN 9.8%
NET MARGIN 4.1%
ROIC % 5.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +3.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $7.64
DEBT / EQUITY 2.16x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 66.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // POSTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $74.71
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for POST & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>