ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
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PGY // Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A)

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001883085 ↗
Financials • Finance: Consumer Services
$20.81 ▲ +0.34 (+1.66%)
MKT CAP: $1.74B • VOL: 3.33M
PGY // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 79/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
79 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
19 / 20
STRONG
FCF +200% vs NI +120.3% • ROIC-WACC +76% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +12.9% • P/E 17.9x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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PGY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +49.82%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $20.35H $20.81L $18.54C $20.81VOL 2.41M
RES: $27.37SUP: $16.53SMA50: $19.75SMA200: $16.48
$24.49$21.14$17.80$14.46$11.11RES $27.37SUP $16.53$20.812026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PGY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 85.0% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance: Consumer Services), balanced against a 5.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 20.9% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 85.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +25.6% paired with 12.94% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +25.6% // FCF YLD: 12.94%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 21.3x trailing P/E (17.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 21.3x // EV/EBITDA: 5.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $20.81 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance: Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend 6.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.5% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 21.3x
FORWARD P/E 17.9x
EV / EBITDA 5.4x
FCF YIELD 12.94%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 20.9%
NET MARGIN 6.5%
ROIC % 85.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +25.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.98
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.4
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PGYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $19.04
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>