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OPAL // OPAL Fuels Inc. (Class A)

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001842279 ↗
Energy • Natural Gas Distribution
$1.63 ▲ +0.09 (+5.84%)
MKT CAP: $284.7M • VOL: 162.0K
OPAL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 49/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
49 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +64.3% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +32.5% • Z 0.76
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 83% • VS 200D +7.9% • RSI 73
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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OPAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.54%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $1.62H $1.63L $1.49C $1.63VOL 215.7K
RES: $3.17SUP: $1.40SMA50: $1.80SMA200: $2.13
$2.88$2.50$2.11$1.73$1.34RES $3.17SUP $1.40$1.632026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
OPAL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 74/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

OPAL Fuels Inc. (Class A) (OPAL) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 41.1% return on invested capital within Energy (Natural Gas Distribution), balanced against a 3.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 2.3% operating margin and 41.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 41.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +12.3% paired with -12.03% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +12.3% // FCF YLD: -12.03%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.76 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.76 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 3.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $1.63 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Natural Gas Distribution require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 3.9x
FCF YIELD -12.03%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 2.3%
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % 41.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +12.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 37.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // OPALPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $1.49
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>