ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NWN // Northwest Natural Holding Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001733998 ↗
Energy • Oil/Gas Transmission
$49.96 ▲ +0.49 (+0.99%)
MKT CAP: $2.10B • VOL: 327.2K
NWN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 43/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
43 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF -1.9% vs NI +43.7% • ROIC-WACC -1.1% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
8 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 41% • VS 200D -2% • RSI 50.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
13 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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NWN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.74%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $50.05H $50.15L $49.49C $49.96VOL 255.2K
RES: $54.45SUP: $44.50SMA50: $48.64SMA200: $50.13
$54.12$51.85$49.58$47.31$45.05RES $54.45SUP $44.50$49.962026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
NWN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 6.0% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil/Gas Transmission), balanced against a 6.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 21.8% operating margin and 6.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +11.8% paired with -9.40% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +11.8% // FCF YLD: -9.40%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 18.6x trailing P/E (17.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 18.6x // EV/EBITDA: 6.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $49.96 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil/Gas Transmission require continuous execution to defend 8.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 8.8% // D/E: 1.54x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 18.6x
FORWARD P/E 17.3x
EV / EBITDA 6.4x
FCF YIELD -9.40%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 21.8%
NET MARGIN 8.8%
ROIC % 6.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +11.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.69
DEBT / EQUITY 1.54x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.68%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NWNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $45.72
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>