ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NVGS // Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands)

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001581804 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Marine Transportation
$21.71 ▲ +0.20 (+0.93%)
MKT CAP: $1.34B • VOL: 251.2K
NVGS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 67/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
67 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 70% • VS 200D +7.2% • RSI 57.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +8.7% • P/E 12.5x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
18 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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NVGS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.41%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $21.71H $21.72L $21.21C $21.71VOL 297.9K
RES: $26.55SUP: $20.44SMA50: $22.79SMA200: $21.19
$26.03$23.76$21.48$19.21$16.93RES $26.55SUP $20.44$21.712026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
NVGS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) (NVGS) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 12.2% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Marine Transportation), balanced against a 5.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 28.2% operating margin and 12.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +3.6% paired with 8.71% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +3.6% // FCF YLD: 8.71%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.57 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.57 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 13.4x trailing P/E (12.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 13.4x // EV/EBITDA: 5.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $21.71 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Marine Transportation require continuous execution to defend 17.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 17.1% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 12.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 13.4x
FORWARD P/E 12.5x
EV / EBITDA 5.0x
FCF YIELD 8.71%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 28.2%
NET MARGIN 17.1%
ROIC % 12.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +3.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.62
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.10%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 41.8
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NVGSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $19.87
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>