ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NOG // Northern Oil and Gas Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001104485 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$27.81 ▼ -0.28 (-1.00%)
MKT CAP: $2.96B • VOL: 953.7K
NOG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // D (RQD 49) -> C (RQD 62)
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
62 / 100 +13D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +6.9% vs NI -92.6% • ROIC-WACC +0.6% • Z 1.28
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 76% • VS 200D +13.1% • RSI 60.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.28 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.31
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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NOG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.77%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $28.09H $28.09L $27.81C $27.81VOL 953.7K
RES: $28.88SUP: $24.54SMA50: $25.76SMA200: $24.58
$29.54$26.19$22.84$19.49$16.14RES $28.88SUP $24.54$27.812026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
NOG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 36/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) exhibits 80.9% gross margins and 9.2% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 12.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 80.9% gross profitability converts into 9.9% operating margin and 9.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.2% // GM: 80.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +11.2% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +11.2% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.28 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.28 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 76.4x trailing P/E (71.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 76.4x // EV/EBITDA: 12.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $27.81 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 1.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.6% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 71.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 76.4x
FORWARD P/E 71.1x
EV / EBITDA 12.0x
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN 80.9%
OPERATING MARGIN 9.9%
NET MARGIN 1.6%
ROIC % 9.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +11.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.36
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 5.85%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.4
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NOGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $25.45
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>