NAGE // Niagen Bioscience Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001386570 ↗

Health Care • Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products

$2.33 ▼ -0.17 (-6.80%)

MKT CAP: $197.8M • VOL: 526.4K

52W L $2 52W H $8

ALTMAN Z

4.40 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

NAGE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

▼ DOWNGRADE // C (RQD 63) -> D+ (RQD 57) AS OF 2026-11-02

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

57 / 100 -6D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

13 / 20

SOLID

FCF +11.5% vs NI +103.3% • ROIC-WACC +8.2% • Z 4.4

02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Insider & Capital Conviction

18 / 20

STRONG

FCF YIELD +6.8% • P/E 9.6x • F-SCORE 7/9

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

9 / 20

WARNING

NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.04 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.28

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

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ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON NAGE)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // MACRO TAILWIND SCORE (25/100)SIFTER 05 // TRUE NET LIQUIDITY BETA

SEVERITY: 88/100 Z-SCORE: +2.85σ

NAGE Exhibits 2.64x True Net Liquidity Elasticity as Fed-TGA-RRP Prints $5,746B

TRUE NET LIQUIDITY

$5,746B (-0.64% 4W)

NET LIQUIDITY ELASTICITY

2.64x BETA (r=+0.24)

MACRO TAILWIND SCORE

25 / 100

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // FRED WALCL - TGA - RRP × 5Y BETA]

FRED Fed Assets (WALCL)US Treasury TGA (WTREGEN) + ON RRPICE BofA High-Yield OAS + 5Y Equity Beta

Wall Street's True Net Liquidity Index (WALCL minus Treasury General Account WTREGEN minus Overnight RRP) stands at $5,745.73B (-0.64% 4-week RoC; High-Yield OAS +2 bps). Rolling 5-year regression assigns Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) a 2.64x Net Liquidity beta (r = +0.24), placing it in the top decile of liquidity-sensitive equities. Current plumbing translates to a deterministic Macro Tailwind Score of 25/100.

NAGE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -52.74%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $2.54H $2.54L $2.33C $2.33VOL 348.4K

RES: $2.69SUP: $2.13SMA50: $2.84SMA200: $3.90

NAGE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 65/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) exhibits 64.3% gross margins and 16.8% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products), balanced against a 12.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 64.3% gross profitability converts into 12.6% operating margin and 16.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 16.8% // GM: 64.3%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +29.9% paired with 6.83% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +29.9% // FCF YLD: 6.83%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.40 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.40 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 11.4x trailing P/E (9.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 11.4x // EV/EBITDA: 12.2x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $2.33 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products require continuous execution to defend 13.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 13.4% // D/E: 0.45x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 11.4x

FORWARD P/E 9.6x

EV / EBITDA 12.2x

FCF YIELD 6.83%

GROSS MARGIN 64.3%

OPERATING MARGIN 12.6%

NET MARGIN 13.4%

ROIC % 16.8%

REV GROWTH YOY +29.9%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.22

DEBT / EQUITY —

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.1

5Y EQUITY BETA —

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NAGEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $2.13

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for NAGE & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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