ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

LVWR // LiveWire Group Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001898795 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Motor Vehicles
$0.90 ▼ -0.70 (-43.74%)
MKT CAP: $184.9M • VOL: 2.53M
LVWR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 25/100 [E] (-5 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
20 / 100 -5D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
5 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF +43.7% vs NI +20% • ROIC-WACC -42% • Z 0.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
3 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 7% • VS 200D -35.1% • RSI 36.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
4 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.10 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.13
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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LVWR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -46.11%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $1.60H $1.60L $0.90C $0.90VOL 2.53M
RES: $1.88SUP: $-0.57SMA50: $1.41SMA200: $1.54
$3.77$2.93$2.08$1.23$0.39RES $1.88SUP $-0.57$0.902026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
LVWR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) exhibits -17.3% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Motor Vehicles), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained -17.3% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: -17.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.6% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.6% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.20 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.20 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $0.90 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Motor Vehicles require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 1.61x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN -17.3%
OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -35.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -3.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 1.61x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 36.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LVWRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $0.82
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>