ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

JOE // St. Joe Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000745308 ↗
Real Estate • Homebuilding
$70.02 ▼ -1.78 (-2.48%)
MKT CAP: $4.06B • VOL: 372.3K
JOE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // B (RQD 75) -> B+ (RQD 76)
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
76 / 100 +1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +86.2% vs NI +55.9% • ROIC-WACC +9.5% • Z 4.43
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 91% • VS 200D +8.7% • RSI 64.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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JOE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.43%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $68.13H $71.80L $68.13C $70.02VOL 311.2K
RES: $72.88SUP: $64.96SMA50: $66.56SMA200: $66.03
$73.78$69.67$65.56$61.45$57.33RES $72.88SUP $64.96$70.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
JOE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 65/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

St. Joe Company (JOE) exhibits 43.1% gross margins and 18.1% return on invested capital within Real Estate (Homebuilding), balanced against a 26.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 43.1% gross profitability converts into 28.5% operating margin and 18.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 18.1% // GM: 43.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +27.4% paired with 4.60% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +27.4% // FCF YLD: 4.60%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.43 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.43 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 35.1x trailing P/E (29.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 35.1x // EV/EBITDA: 26.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $70.02 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Homebuilding require continuous execution to defend 22.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 22.5% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 29.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 35.1x
FORWARD P/E 29.5x
EV / EBITDA 26.2x
FCF YIELD 4.60%
GROSS MARGIN 43.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 28.5%
NET MARGIN 22.5%
ROIC % 18.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +27.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.05
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.83%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 64.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // JOEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $64.07
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for JOE & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>