ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ICG // Intchains Group Limited

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001895597 ↗
Technology • Semiconductors
$1.26 ▼ -0.09 (-6.67%)
MKT CAP: $163.1M • VOL: 376.0K
ICG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 37/100 [D-] (+3 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
40 / 100 +3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF +31.3% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -19.6% • Z 17.3
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 45% • VS 200D +17.4% • RSI 58.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
7 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.21
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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ICG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.33%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $1.40H $1.40L $1.26C $1.26VOL 549.2K
RES: $1.55SUP: $0.68SMA50: $1.08SMA200: $1.15
$1.78$1.46$1.14$0.82$0.50RES $1.55SUP $0.68$1.262026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
ICG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Intchains Group Limited (ICG) exhibits 7.2% gross margins and -11.0% return on invested capital within Technology (Semiconductors), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 7.2% gross profitability converts into -47.4% operating margin and -11.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -11.0% // GM: 7.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -18.2% paired with -8.56% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -18.2% // FCF YLD: -8.56%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 17.30 and Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 17.30 // F-SCORE: 1/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $1.26 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Semiconductors require continuous execution to defend -21.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -21.5% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -8.56%
GROSS MARGIN 7.2%
OPERATING MARGIN -47.4%
NET MARGIN -21.5%
ROIC % -11.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -18.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 58.4
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ICGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $1.15
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>