ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ICFI // ICF International Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001362004 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Professional Services
$95.48 ▼ -0.36 (-0.38%)
MKT CAP: $1.72B • VOL: 261.3K
ICFI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // B- (RQD 71) -> B (RQD 73)
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
73 / 100 +2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 94% • VS 200D +21.6% • RSI 71.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +8.3% • P/E 17.4x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.12 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.06
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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ICFI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +30.05%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $94.66H $95.84L $94.66C $95.48VOL 104.2K
RES: $114.7SUP: $83.39SMA50: $87.97SMA200: $78.83
$100.7$89.36$78.01$66.66$55.31RES $114.7SUP $83.39$95.482026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
ICFI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 41/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

ICF International Inc. (ICFI) exhibits 37.2% gross margins and 8.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Professional Services), balanced against a 14.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 37.2% gross profitability converts into 7.8% operating margin and 8.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.1% // GM: 37.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -7.3% paired with 8.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -7.3% // FCF YLD: 8.25%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.87 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.87 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 18.7x trailing P/E (17.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 18.7x // EV/EBITDA: 14.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $95.48 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Professional Services require continuous execution to defend 4.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.9% // D/E: 0.39x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 18.7x
FORWARD P/E 17.4x
EV / EBITDA 14.5x
FCF YIELD 8.25%
GROSS MARGIN 37.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 7.8%
NET MARGIN 4.9%
ROIC % 8.1%
REV GROWTH YOY -7.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $5.13
DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.60%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 71.4
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ICFIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $87.37
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>