ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

HLMN // Hillman Solutions Corp.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001822492 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Industrial Machinery/Components
$7.80 ▲ +0.21 (+2.77%)
MKT CAP: $1.52B • VOL: 1.48M
HLMN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 55/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
55 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 44% • VS 200D -1.9% • RSI 55.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +6.9% • P/E 35x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did HLMN's Forensic Fundamentals & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever HLMN is Upgraded or Downgraded.

HLMN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.41%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $7.81H $7.90L $7.72C $7.80VOL 1.62M
RES: $10.38SUP: $6.35SMA50: $7.34SMA200: $8.12
$9.78$8.94$8.09$7.24$6.40RES $10.38SUP $6.35$7.802026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
HLMN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 4.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 18.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 7.3% operating margin and 4.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 4.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.4% paired with 6.93% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.4% // FCF YLD: 6.93%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.72 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.72 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 37.6x trailing P/E (35.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 37.6x // EV/EBITDA: 18.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $7.80 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend 2.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.6% // D/E: 0.54x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 35.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 37.6x
FORWARD P/E 35.0x
EV / EBITDA 18.9x
FCF YIELD 6.93%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 7.3%
NET MARGIN 2.6%
ROIC % 4.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +5.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.21
DEBT / EQUITY 0.54x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 66.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // HLMNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $7.14
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for HLMN & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>