ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

HCI // HCI Group Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001400810 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$198.23 ▲ +2.99 (+1.53%)
MKT CAP: $2.47B • VOL: 145.9K
HCI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 76/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
76 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +34.5% vs NI +151.1% • ROIC-WACC +21.8% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +17.9% • P/E 6.5x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

Why did HCI's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever HCI is Upgraded or Downgraded.

HCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +29.08%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $199.6H $199.7L $196.9C $198.2VOL 116.8K
RES: $211.4SUP: $173.7SMA50: $189.2SMA200: $170.6
$213.1$194.6$176.1$157.5$139.0RES $211.4SUP $173.7$198.22026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
HCI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 70/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

HCI Group Inc. (HCI) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 30.8% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 7.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 30.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 30.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +20.1% paired with 17.88% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +20.1% // FCF YLD: 17.88%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 7.7x trailing P/E (6.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 7.7x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $198.23 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 35.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 35.6% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 6.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 7.7x
FORWARD P/E 6.5x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 17.88%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN 35.6%
ROIC % 30.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +20.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $25.76
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.78%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.2
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // HCIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $181.39
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for HCI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>