ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

GRBK // Green Brick Partners Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001373670 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Homebuilding
$62.53 ▼ -0.39 (-0.62%)
MKT CAP: $2.65B • VOL: 378.7K
GRBK // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 65/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
65 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI -17.7% • ROIC-WACC +9.9% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7.9% • P/E 7.2x • F-SCORE 4/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did GRBK's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever GRBK is Upgraded or Downgraded.

GRBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.28%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $63.22H $63.95L $60.69C $62.53VOL 404.4K
RES: $66.45SUP: $57.08SMA50: $66.73SMA200: $69.51
$84.86$77.89$70.91$63.93$56.95RES $66.45SUP $57.08$62.532026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
GRBK // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) exhibits 31.4% gross margins and 18.5% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Homebuilding), balanced against a 7.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 31.4% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 18.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 18.5% // GM: 31.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -1.0% paired with 7.86% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -1.0% // FCF YLD: 7.86%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 7.7x trailing P/E (7.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 7.7x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $62.53 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Homebuilding require continuous execution to defend 16.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 16.8% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 7.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 7.7x
FORWARD P/E 7.2x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 7.86%
GROSS MARGIN 31.4%
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN 16.8%
ROIC % 18.5%
REV GROWTH YOY -1.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $8.10
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.11%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 38.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // GRBKPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $57.22
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for GRBK & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>