ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

GFF // Griffon Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000050725 ↗
Industrials • Building Products
$102.92 ▲ +3.05 (+3.05%)
MKT CAP: $4.66B • VOL: 313.8K
GFF // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 51/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
51 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF -75.6% vs NI -75.6% • ROIC-WACC +5.8% • Z 3.31
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 57% • VS 200D +1.6% • RSI 59.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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GFF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.89%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $103.1H $104.5L $100.8C $102.9VOL 323.3K
RES: $121.2SUP: $89.87SMA50: $95.96SMA200: $89.35
$110.7$101.8$92.98$84.11$75.25RES $121.2SUP $89.87$102.92026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
GFF // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Griffon Corporation (GFF) exhibits 42.0% gross margins and 12.0% return on invested capital within Industrials (Building Products), balanced against a 23.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 42.0% gross profitability converts into 8.2% operating margin and 12.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.0% // GM: 42.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.9% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.9% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.31 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.31 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 91.2x trailing P/E (84.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 91.2x // EV/EBITDA: 23.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $102.92 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Building Products require continuous execution to defend 2.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.0% // D/E: 8.50x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 84.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 91.2x
FORWARD P/E 84.8x
EV / EBITDA 23.6x
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN 42.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 8.2%
NET MARGIN 2.0%
ROIC % 12.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -3.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.13
DEBT / EQUITY 8.50x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.85%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 64.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // GFFPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $94.18
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>